UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Condit vs Thompson

2,125

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Condit

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
78% chance Condit
WILL WIN

1,900

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Carlos Condit
Much harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.8 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Slightly heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Stephen Thompson
Much better takedown defense 8.6 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Condit on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Thompson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Carlos
Condit
In 9:02, how much damage will he do? Condit Thompson
Significant Strikes50
Condit's good striking offense may be a factor against Thompson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 9:02
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Condit's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Thompson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:02
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Condit is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Thompson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Condit’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stephen
Thompson
In 9:02, how much damage will he do? Thompson Condit
Significant Strikes34
Thompson's good striking offense won't be a factor against Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 9:02
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Thompson's average takedown offense may be a factor against Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Thompson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Thompson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Thompson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Condit 8.9
fighter Thompson 8.9
Great striking by Thompson
23 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Clements
65 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Burrell
22 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Stittgen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Condit 7.5
fighter Thompson 8.1
Great takedowns by Thompson
2 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Clements
2 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Burrell

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Condit 8.8
fighter Thompson 8.6
Great knockouts by Condit
Round 4 Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
Round 1 Jul 02, 2011 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Condit 7.9
fighter Thompson 6.8
Great submissions by Condit
Round 1 Feb 13, 2008 vs Prater
Round 1 Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Round 1 Apr 21, 2006 vs Trigg

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Condit 8.7
fighter Thompson 8.1
Fast finishes by Condit
954 seconds Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
267 seconds Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy
141 seconds Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Condit
legend Thompson
Read More
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Fantasy Cage Match
Thompson vs McGregor
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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