UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Condit vs Hardy

2,125

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Condit

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
68% chance Condit
WILL WIN

1,995

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Carlos Condit
Much harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.7 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 192 cm vs 188 cm Almost the same
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 34 years vs 36 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Dan Hardy
Much better takedown defense 8.4 vs 7.5 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 7.8 vs 7.5 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Condit on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hardy’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Carlos
Condit
In 12:08, how much damage will he do? Condit Hardy
Significant Strikes65
Condit's good striking offense may be a factor against Hardy's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:08
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Condit's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Hardy's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:08
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Condit is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Condit is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Hardy on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Condit’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dan
Hardy
In 12:08, how much damage will he do? Hardy Condit
Significant Strikes36
Hardy's average striking offense won't be a factor against Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:08
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Hardy's below average takedown offense is matched by Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:08
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hardy has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hardy is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hardy is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Condit 8.9
fighter Hardy 8.5
Great striking by Condit
100 strikes Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
151 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Diaz
26 strikes Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Condit 7.5
fighter Hardy 7.8
Great takedowns by Hardy
3 takedowns Sep 29, 2012 vs Sadollah
1 takedown Nov 14, 2009 vs Swick
1 takedown Jun 13, 2009 vs Davis

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Condit 8.8
fighter Hardy 8.2
Great knockouts by Condit
Round 4 Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
Round 1 Jul 02, 2011 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Condit 7.9
fighter Hardy 6.7
Great submissions by Condit
Round 1 Feb 13, 2008 vs Prater
Round 1 Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Round 1 Apr 21, 2006 vs Trigg

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Condit 8.7
fighter Hardy 7.8
Fast finishes by Condit
954 seconds Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
267 seconds Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy
141 seconds Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 16, 2010UFC 120
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XDEC
2,0802,111
2,1342,056
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Condit
legend Hardy
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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