UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Condit vs Alves

2,125

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Condit

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
61% chance Condit
WILL WIN

2,049

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Carlos Condit
Much harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much longer reach 192 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.9 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
A lot taller 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Thiago Alves
Much better takedown defense 8.6 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.5 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Condit on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alves’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Carlos
Condit
In 12:42, how much damage will he do? Condit Alves
Significant Strikes66
Condit's good striking offense may be a factor against Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 114 Significant Strikes in 12:42
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Condit's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:42
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Condit is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Condit is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Alves on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Condit’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Alves
In 12:42, how much damage will he do? Alves Condit
Significant Strikes52
Alves's excellent striking offense is matched by Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 114 Significant Strikes in 12:42
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Alves's below average takedown offense is matched by Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:42
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alves is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alves is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alves is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Condit 8.9
fighter Alves 9.0
Great striking by Alves
80 strikes Oct 25, 2008 vs Koscheck
10 strikes Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
17 strikes Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Condit 7.5
fighter Alves 7.9
Great takedowns by Alves
2 takedowns Dec 11, 2010 vs Howard
1 takedown Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
1 takedown Nov 19, 2005 vs Chalangov

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Condit 8.8
fighter Alves 8.0
Great knockouts by Condit
Round 4 Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
Round 1 Jul 02, 2011 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Condit 7.9
fighter Alves 6.9
Great submissions by Condit
Round 1 Feb 13, 2008 vs Prater
Round 1 Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Round 1 Apr 21, 2006 vs Trigg

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Condit 8.7
fighter Alves 8.3
Fast finishes by Condit
954 seconds Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
267 seconds Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy
141 seconds Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 30, 2015UFC Fight Night 67
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Condit
legend Alves
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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