UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Condit vs Cerrone

2,125

CageRank

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
61% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

2,206

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.5 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.5 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Carlos Condit
Much harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 192 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Condit’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 11:39, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Condit
Significant Strikes48
Cerrone's excellent striking offense is matched by Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 105 Significant Strikes in 11:39
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Cerrone's average takedown offense may be a factor against Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:39
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Condit on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Carlos
Condit
In 11:39, how much damage will he do? Condit Cerrone
Significant Strikes68
Condit's good striking offense may be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 105 Significant Strikes in 11:39
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Condit's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:39
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Condit is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Condit is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Condit 8.9
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Condit 7.5
Great takedowns by Cerrone
1 takedown Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
2 takedowns Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki
3 takedowns Sep 30, 2010 vs Varner

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Condit 8.8
Great knockouts by Condit
Round 4 Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
Round 1 Jul 02, 2011 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Condit 7.9
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Condit 8.7
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Condit
Read More
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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