UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Condit vs Diaz

2,125

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.5 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.6 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.2 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger takedown offense 7.6 vs 7.5 Almost the same
Advantages for Carlos Condit
Much harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Condit’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 12:50, how much damage will he do? Diaz Condit
Significant Strikes74
Diaz's excellent striking offense is matched by Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 115 Significant Strikes in 12:50
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Diaz's below average takedown offense is matched by Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:50
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Condit on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Carlos
Condit
In 12:50, how much damage will he do? Condit Diaz
Significant Strikes75
Condit's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 115 Significant Strikes in 12:50
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Condit's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:50
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Condit is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Condit is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Condit 8.9
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Condit 7.5
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
1 takedown Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
3 takedowns Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Condit 8.8
Great knockouts by Condit
Round 4 Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
Round 1 Jul 02, 2011 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Condit 7.9
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Condit 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 4, 2012UFC 143
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
XR1 KO
2,1662,231
2,2252,172
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Condit
Read More
Condit vs Cerrone
Fantasy Cage Match
Diaz vs Diaz
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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