UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Condit vs McGregor

2,125

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Condit

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
62% chance Condit
WILL WIN

2,038

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Carlos Condit
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.4 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
A lot taller 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Longer reach 192 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.5 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 30 years vs 34 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Condit on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Carlos
Condit
In 10:42, how much damage will he do? Condit McGregor
Significant Strikes60
Condit's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:42
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Condit's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:42
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Condit is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Condit is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Condit’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 10:42, how much damage will he do? McGregor Condit
Significant Strikes35
McGregor's good striking offense won't be a factor against Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:42
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
McGregor's average takedown offense may be a factor against Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:42
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Condit 8.9
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Condit
100 strikes Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
151 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Diaz
26 strikes Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Condit 7.5
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Condit 8.8
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Condit 7.9
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Condit
Round 1 Feb 13, 2008 vs Prater
Round 1 Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Round 1 Apr 21, 2006 vs Trigg

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Condit 8.7
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Condit
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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