UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nakao vs Aoki

1,666

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
97% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 7.6 Around 30% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 7.2 More than 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.4 More than 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.0 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly younger 34 years vs 46 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Jutaro Nakao
Significantly heavier hands 7.1 vs 6.1 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 7.8 vs 7.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nakao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aoki Nakao
Significant Strikes25
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Nakao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns7
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nakao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nakao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jutaro
Nakao
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nakao Aoki
Significant Strikes15
Nakao's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nakao's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nakao is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nakao is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nakao is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Nakao 7.9
Great striking by Nakao
5 strikes Oct 30, 2004 vs Aoki
8 strikes Sep 28, 2001 vs DeSouza

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Nakao 8.0
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Nakao 7.1
Great knockouts by Nakao
Round 1 Oct 30, 2004 vs Aoki
Round 3 Oct 30, 2004 vs Nakamura
Round 2 Sep 28, 2001 vs DeSouza

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Nakao 7.2
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Nakao 7.4
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 30, 2004Deep - 16th Impact
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R2 SUBX
1,8161,640
1,8431,614
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Nakao
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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