UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nakao vs Arai

1,666

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nakao

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
59% chance Nakao
WILL WIN

1,603

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jutaro Nakao
Much better submission defense 9.6 vs 8.2 Around 20% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Much harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.0 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.6 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly heavier hands 7.1 vs 6.6 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 7.4 vs 7.1 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Kenji Arai
Better striker 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 38 years vs 46 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better takedown defense 8.1 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Nakao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Arai’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jutaro
Nakao
In 11:45, how much damage will he do? Nakao Arai
Significant Strikes45
Nakao's below average striking offense is matched by Arai's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 106 Significant Strikes in 11:45
Below average
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nakao's average takedown offense is matched by Arai's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:45
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nakao is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Nakao is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Nakao is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Arai on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nakao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kenji
Arai
In 11:45, how much damage will he do? Arai Nakao
Significant Strikes49
Arai's good striking offense is matched by Nakao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 106 Significant Strikes in 11:45
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Arai's average takedown offense may be a factor against Nakao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:45
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Arai is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Arai is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Arai has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nakao 7.1
fighter Arai 6.6
Great knockouts by Nakao
Round 1 Oct 30, 2004 vs Aoki
Round 3 Oct 30, 2004 vs Nakamura
Round 2 Sep 28, 2001 vs DeSouza

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nakao 7.2
fighter Arai 6.6
Great submissions by Nakao
Round 1 Dec 16, 2001 vs Wada
Round 1 Feb 02, 1999 vs Miletich
Round 1 Jan 17, 1998 vs R. Palmer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nakao 7.4
fighter Arai 7.1
Fast finishes by Nakao
247 seconds Dec 16, 2001 vs Wada
562 seconds Feb 02, 1999 vs Miletich
231 seconds Jan 17, 1998 vs R. Palmer
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 3, 2004Deep - 15th Impact
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
R2 SUBX
1,7681,596
1,7951,569
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nakao
legend Arai
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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