UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nelson vs Belfort

1,990

CageRank

WINNER
Belfort

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
79% chance Belfort
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Vitor Belfort
Much harder to hit 9.8 vs 8.3 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 10.0 vs 9.2 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 10.0 vs 9.4 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 6.9 vs 6.7 Almost the same
Slightly longer reach 188 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Roy Nelson
Much heavier 248 lbs vs 184 lbs Around 35% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.6 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.4 Almost the same
Belfort on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Vitor
Belfort
In 9:37, how much damage will he do? Belfort Nelson
Significant Strikes64
Belfort's excellent striking offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:37
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Belfort's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:37
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Belfort has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Belfort is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Belfort is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Belfort’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roy
Nelson
In 9:37, how much damage will he do? Nelson Belfort
Significant Strikes18
Nelson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Belfort's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:37
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Nelson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Belfort's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:37
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Belfort 9.2
fighter Nelson 8.4
Great striking by Belfort
12 strikes Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
18 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
6 strikes Jan 24, 2009 vs Lindland

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Belfort 7.6
fighter Nelson 7.6
Great takedowns by Nelson
2 takedowns Oct 29, 2011 vs Filipovic
1 takedown Dec 05, 2009 vs Schaub

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Belfort 10.0
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great knockouts by Belfort
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
Round 2 Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
Round 1 Sep 19, 2009 vs Franklin

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Belfort 6.9
fighter Nelson 6.7
Great submissions by Belfort
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Johnson
Round 1 Mar 25, 2001 vs Southworth
Round 1 Dec 21, 1997 vs Charles

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Belfort 10.0
fighter Nelson 9.2
Fast finishes by Belfort
77 seconds Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
387 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
182 seconds Sep 19, 2009 vs Franklin
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Belfort
legend Nelson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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