UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nelson vs Miocic

1,990

CageRank

WINNER
Miocic

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
65% chance Miocic
WILL WIN

2,101

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Stipe Miocic
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.6 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much longer reach 203 cm vs 185 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 35 years vs 41 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.4 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Roy Nelson
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.3 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier hands 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Slightly better submission offense 6.7 vs 6.6 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Miocic on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stipe
Miocic
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Miocic Nelson
Significant Strikes93
Miocic's excellent striking offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Miocic's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Miocic has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Miocic is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Miocic has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Miocic’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roy
Nelson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nelson Miocic
Significant Strikes69
Nelson's average striking offense is matched by Miocic's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nelson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Miocic's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Miocic 8.9
fighter Nelson 8.4
Great striking by Miocic
63 strikes Jan 25, 2014 vs Gonzaga
106 strikes Jun 15, 2013 vs Nelson
32 strikes May 26, 2012 vs del Rosario

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Miocic 8.7
fighter Nelson 7.6
Great takedowns by Miocic
1 takedown Jan 25, 2014 vs Gonzaga
1 takedown Jun 15, 2013 vs Nelson
2 takedowns May 26, 2012 vs del Rosario

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Miocic 9.1
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great knockouts by Nelson
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Herman
Round 1 Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Miocic 6.6
fighter Nelson 6.7
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 May 06, 2006 vs Godsey
Round 1 Apr 01, 2006 vs Buchkovich
Round 3 Apr 17, 2004 vs Cantrell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Miocic 8.9
fighter Nelson 9.2
Fast finishes by Nelson
123 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
51 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Herman
39 seconds Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 15, 2013UFC 161
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R2 KOX
2,0061,968
1,9512,024
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Miocic
legend Nelson
Read More
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Fantasy Cage Match
Miocic vs Ngannou
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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