UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Barnett vs Nastula

2,106

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Barnett

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
92% chance Barnett
WILL WIN

1,680

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Josh Barnett
Much stronger jaw 9.5 vs 7.5 More than 25% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much better submission offense 9.0 vs 7.4 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better submission defense 9.3 vs 7.9 Around 20% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.0 Around 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
A lot taller 191 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 39 years vs 47 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 247 lbs vs 233 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Slightly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Pawel Nastula
From what we can tell, Josh Barnett dominates Pawel Nastula in every way.
Barnett on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nastula’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Josh
Barnett
In 5:27, how much damage will he do? Barnett Nastula
Significant Strikes26
Barnett's good striking offense is matched by Nastula's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 49 Significant Strikes in 5:27
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Barnett's good takedown offense is matched by Nastula's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:27
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barnett has a chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Barnett has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Barnett is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nastula on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barnett’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Pawel
Nastula
In 5:27, how much damage will he do? Nastula Barnett
Significant Strikes16
Nastula's average striking offense won't be a factor against Barnett's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 49 Significant Strikes in 5:27
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nastula's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Barnett's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:27
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nastula is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nastula is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nastula is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Barnett 8.9
fighter Nastula 8.2
Great striking by Barnett
26 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Mir
21 strikes Sep 10, 2011 vs Kharitonov
30 strikes Sep 10, 2006 vs Nogueira

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Barnett 7.8
fighter Nastula 7.8
Great knockouts by Nastula
Round 1 Oct 01, 2011 vs Ambriz
Round 1 Aug 20, 2011 vs Wronski
Round 1 Sep 03, 2010 vs Masuda

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Barnett 9.0
fighter Nastula 7.4
Great submissions by Barnett
Round 1 Sep 10, 2011 vs Kharitonov
Round 1 Jun 29, 2001 vs Schilt
Round 4 Feb 08, 2000 vs Severn

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Barnett 9.1
fighter Nastula 8.3
Fast finishes by Barnett
116 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Mir
268 seconds Sep 10, 2011 vs Kharitonov
981 seconds Feb 08, 2000 vs Severn
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 21, 2006Pride 32
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
R2 SUBX
2,1001,576
2,1051,572
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Barnett
legend Nastula
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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