UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rogerio Nogueira vs Rua

2,064

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Rogerio Nogueira

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
56% chance Rogerio Nogueira
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Significantly better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.5 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 188 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Much stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly heavier hands 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Harder to hit 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 36 years vs 41 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Rogerio Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Rogerio Nogueira
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Rogerio Nogueira Rua
Significant Strikes52
Rogerio Nogueira's good striking offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Rogerio Nogueira's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rogerio Nogueira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogerio Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Rua Rogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes78
Rua's excellent striking offense will dominate Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Rua's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.8
fighter Rua 9.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.5
fighter Rua 8.3
Great takedowns by Rua
8 takedowns Dec 31, 2006 vs Nakamura
7 takedowns Jun 26, 2005 vs Rogerio Nogueira
1 takedown Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
fighter Rua 9.3
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.3
fighter Rua 6.5
Great submissions by Rogerio Nogueira
Round 3 May 09, 2009 vs Staring
Round 1 Apr 23, 2005 vs Henderson
Round 1 Mar 09, 2002 vs Theobald

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
fighter Rua 8.8
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 1, 2015UFC 190
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XX
00
00
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R1 SUBX
2,0231,943
1,9622,005
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rogerio Nogueira
legend Rua
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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