UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rogerio Nogueira vs Henderson

2,064

CageRank

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

2,091

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Dan Henderson
Much heavier hands 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 9.9 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Much better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.3 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 42 years vs 48 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly taller 188 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogerio Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dan
Henderson
In 11:56, how much damage will he do? Henderson Rogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes55
Henderson's excellent striking offense will dominate Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:56
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Henderson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:56
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rogerio Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Rogerio Nogueira
In 11:56, how much damage will he do? Rogerio Nogueira Henderson
Significant Strikes56
Rogerio Nogueira's good striking offense may be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:56
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rogerio Nogueira's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:56
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rogerio Nogueira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rogerio Nogueira has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.8
Great striking by Henderson
77 strikes Nov 19, 2011 vs Rua
22 strikes Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
13 strikes Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.5
Great takedowns by Henderson
1 takedown Nov 19, 2011 vs Rua
4 takedowns Jan 17, 2009 vs Franklin
3 takedowns Feb 24, 2007 vs Silva

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
Great knockouts by Henderson
Round 1 Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
Round 1 Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral
Round 2 Jul 11, 2009 vs Bisping

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 6.3
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.3
Great submissions by Rogerio Nogueira
Round 3 May 09, 2009 vs Staring
Round 1 Apr 23, 2005 vs Henderson
Round 1 Mar 09, 2002 vs Theobald

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.5
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
Fast finishes by Henderson
252 seconds Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
113 seconds Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral
500 seconds Jul 11, 2009 vs Bisping
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XR1 KO
1,9701,992
2,0231,939
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Rogerio Nogueira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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