UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rogerio Nogueira vs Bader

2,064

CageRank

WINNER
Bader

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
51% chance Bader
WILL WIN

2,073

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ryan Bader
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 35 years vs 42 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Bader on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogerio Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ryan
Bader
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Bader Rogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes60
Bader's good striking offense is matched by Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Bader's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Bader is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Bader is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Bader has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rogerio Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Bader’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Rogerio Nogueira
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Rogerio Nogueira Bader
Significant Strikes50
Rogerio Nogueira's good striking offense won't be a factor against Bader's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rogerio Nogueira's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Bader's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rogerio Nogueira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Bader 8.7
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.8
Great striking by Rogerio Nogueira
40 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Evans
24 strikes Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
27 strikes Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Bader 8.7
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.5
Great takedowns by Bader
3 takedowns Dec 07, 2013 vs Perosh
4 takedowns Feb 26, 2012 vs Jackson
5 takedowns Sep 25, 2010 vs Rogerio Nogueira

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Bader 7.6
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
Great knockouts by Rogerio Nogueira
Round 1 Nov 21, 2009 vs Cane
Round 2 Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
Round 2 Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Bader 7.4
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.3
Great submissions by Bader
Round 1 Jan 26, 2013 vs Matyushenko
Round 1 Apr 05, 2008 vs Acosta
Round 1 May 12, 2007 vs Baggett

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Bader 8.1
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
Fast finishes by Rogerio Nogueira
566 seconds Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
433 seconds Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem
485 seconds Apr 23, 2005 vs Henderson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 19, 2016UFC Fight Night 100
team
VS
team
XR3 KO
XX
00
00
September 25, 2010UFC 119
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
DECX
2,1231,954
2,0502,027
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Bader
legend Rogerio Nogueira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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