UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rogerio Nogueira vs Maia

2,064

CageRank

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
55% chance Maia
WILL WIN

2,102

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 7.5 Around 30% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.3 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Slightly better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Slightly younger 39 years vs 41 years Around 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Much heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.2 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 205 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogerio Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Rogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes45
Maia's average striking offense won't be a factor against Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rogerio Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Rogerio Nogueira
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Rogerio Nogueira Maia
Significant Strikes64
Rogerio Nogueira's good striking offense is matched by Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rogerio Nogueira's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rogerio Nogueira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rogerio Nogueira has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.8
Great striking by Rogerio Nogueira
40 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Evans
24 strikes Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
27 strikes Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.5
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
Great knockouts by Rogerio Nogueira
Round 1 Nov 21, 2009 vs Cane
Round 2 Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
Round 2 Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.3
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
Fast finishes by Maia
150 seconds Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
47 seconds Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
157 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend Rogerio Nogueira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus