UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rogerio Nogueira vs Lesnar

2,064

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Rogerio Nogueira

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
80% chance Rogerio Nogueira
WILL WIN

1,820

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Much stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.1 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 7.5 More than 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly heavier 264 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 30% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly better submission offense 7.8 vs 7.3 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Taller 191 cm vs 188 cm Almost the same
Rogerio Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Rogerio Nogueira
In 9:37, how much damage will he do? Rogerio Nogueira Lesnar
Significant Strikes44
Rogerio Nogueira's good striking offense is matched by Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:37
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rogerio Nogueira's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:37
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogerio Nogueira has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Rogerio Nogueira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Rogerio Nogueira has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogerio Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 9:37, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Rogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes42
Lesnar's good striking offense is matched by Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:37
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense will dominate Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:37
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.8
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Lesnar
8 strikes Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
47 strikes Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
31 strikes Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.5
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Rogerio Nogueira
Round 1 Nov 21, 2009 vs Cane
Round 2 Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
Round 2 Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.3
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Soo Kim

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Lesnar
439 seconds Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
408 seconds Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
487 seconds Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rogerio Nogueira
legend Lesnar
Read More
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Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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