UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rogerio Nogueira vs Cummins

2,064

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Rogerio Nogueira

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
83% chance Rogerio Nogueira
WILL WIN

1,787

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Much harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.0 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.0 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Patrick Cummins
Much stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.5 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 37 years vs 42 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Rogerio Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cummins’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Rogerio Nogueira
In 8:59, how much damage will he do? Rogerio Nogueira Cummins
Significant Strikes53
Rogerio Nogueira's good striking offense may be a factor against Cummins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 8:59
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rogerio Nogueira's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Cummins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:59
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogerio Nogueira has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Rogerio Nogueira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Rogerio Nogueira has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Cummins on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogerio Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Patrick
Cummins
In 8:59, how much damage will he do? Cummins Rogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes34
Cummins's good striking offense is matched by Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 8:59
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cummins's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:59
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cummins is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cummins is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cummins is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.8
fighter Cummins 8.7
Great striking by Rogerio Nogueira
40 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Evans
24 strikes Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
27 strikes Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
fighter Cummins 7.9
Great knockouts by Rogerio Nogueira
Round 1 Nov 21, 2009 vs Cane
Round 2 Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
Round 2 Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.3
fighter Cummins 7.3
Great submissions by Rogerio Nogueira
Round 3 May 09, 2009 vs Staring
Round 1 Apr 23, 2005 vs Henderson
Round 1 Mar 09, 2002 vs Theobald

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
fighter Cummins 8.0
Fast finishes by Rogerio Nogueira
566 seconds Jan 24, 2009 vs Matyushenko
433 seconds Jul 01, 2006 vs Overeem
485 seconds Apr 23, 2005 vs Henderson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 14, 2016UFC 198
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rogerio Nogueira
legend Cummins
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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