UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Masvidal vs Chiesa

2,125

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Masvidal

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
73% chance Masvidal
WILL WIN

1,954

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jorge Masvidal
Much heavier hands 7.5 vs 6.2 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Michael Chiesa
Much better submission offense 8.8 vs 6.9 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.2 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Longer reach 192 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 29 years vs 32 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Masvidal on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Chiesa’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jorge
Masvidal
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Masvidal Chiesa
Significant Strikes71
Masvidal's good striking offense may be a factor against Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Masvidal's good takedown offense may be a factor against Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Masvidal is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Masvidal is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Masvidal has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Chiesa on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Masvidal’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Chiesa
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Chiesa Masvidal
Significant Strikes50
Chiesa's average striking offense is matched by Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Chiesa's good takedown offense may be a factor against Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Chiesa is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Chiesa has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Chiesa is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Masvidal 8.8
fighter Chiesa 8.1
Great striking by Masvidal
50 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Means
82 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Wilcox
56 strikes Mar 05, 2011 vs Evangelista

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Masvidal 8.7
fighter Chiesa 8.9
Great takedowns by Chiesa
1 takedown Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
1 takedown Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
1 takedown Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Masvidal 7.5
fighter Chiesa 6.2
Great knockouts by Masvidal
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Kitaoka
Round 1 Apr 03, 2009 vs Agallar
Round 1 Sep 28, 2008 vs Schultz

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Masvidal 6.9
fighter Chiesa 8.8
Great submissions by Chiesa
Round 2 Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
Round 2 Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
Round 1 Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Masvidal 7.6
fighter Chiesa 8.2
Fast finishes by Chiesa
449 seconds Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
167 seconds Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta
133 seconds Jul 16, 2011 vs Coble
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 27, 2013UFC on Fox 8
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
DECX
2,0941,891
2,1181,868
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Masvidal
legend Chiesa
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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