UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Masvidal vs Diaz

2,125

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Masvidal

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
60% chance Masvidal
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jorge Masvidal
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 6.9 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.6 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Masvidal on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jorge
Masvidal
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Masvidal Diaz
Significant Strikes72
Masvidal's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Masvidal's good takedown offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Masvidal is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Masvidal is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Masvidal has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Masvidal’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Masvidal
Significant Strikes87
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Masvidal 8.8
fighter Diaz 9.3
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Masvidal 8.7
fighter Diaz 7.8
Great takedowns by Masvidal
6 takedowns Apr 20, 2013 vs Means
7 takedowns Jun 18, 2011 vs Noons
3 takedowns Mar 05, 2011 vs Evangelista

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Masvidal 7.5
fighter Diaz 7.4
Great knockouts by Masvidal
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Kitaoka
Round 1 Apr 03, 2009 vs Agallar
Round 1 Sep 28, 2008 vs Schultz

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Masvidal 6.9
fighter Diaz 8.6
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Masvidal 7.6
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Masvidal
legend Diaz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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