UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Masvidal vs Kotani

2,125

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Masvidal

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
72% chance Masvidal
WILL WIN

1,961

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jorge Masvidal
Better striker 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.5 vs 6.7 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly longer reach 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.2 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 33 years vs 36 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Advantages for Naoyuki Kotani
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 6.9 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.6 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Slightly better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Masvidal on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kotani’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jorge
Masvidal
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Masvidal Kotani
Significant Strikes85
Masvidal's good striking offense may be a factor against Kotani's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Masvidal's good takedown offense may be a factor against Kotani's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Masvidal is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Masvidal is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Masvidal has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Kotani on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Masvidal’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Naoyuki
Kotani
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Kotani Masvidal
Significant Strikes43
Kotani's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Kotani's average takedown offense is matched by Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kotani is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kotani has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kotani is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Masvidal 8.8
fighter Kotani 7.9
Great striking by Masvidal
50 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Means
82 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Wilcox
56 strikes Mar 05, 2011 vs Evangelista

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Masvidal 8.7
fighter Kotani 8.0
Great takedowns by Masvidal
6 takedowns Apr 20, 2013 vs Means
7 takedowns Jun 18, 2011 vs Noons
3 takedowns Mar 05, 2011 vs Evangelista

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Masvidal 7.5
fighter Kotani 6.7
Great knockouts by Masvidal
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Kitaoka
Round 1 Apr 03, 2009 vs Agallar
Round 1 Sep 28, 2008 vs Schultz

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Masvidal 6.9
fighter Kotani 8.7
Great submissions by Kotani
Round 1 Jun 09, 2013 vs Krat
Round 1 Sep 04, 2011 vs Inoue
Round 1 Nov 23, 2009 vs Nakamura

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Masvidal 7.6
fighter Kotani 8.8
Fast finishes by Kotani
167 seconds Jun 09, 2013 vs Krat
104 seconds Sep 04, 2011 vs Inoue
97 seconds Nov 23, 2009 vs Nakamura
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 KOX
1,9591,757
1,9831,733
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Masvidal
legend Kotani
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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