UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Masvidal vs Gastelum

2,125

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Masvidal

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
73% chance Masvidal
WILL WIN

1,949

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jorge Masvidal
Much stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 8.5 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Longer reach 185 cm vs 182 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Significantly better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.9 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 7.9 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 26 years vs 33 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Heavier hands 7.6 vs 7.5 Almost the same
Slightly stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Masvidal on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jorge
Masvidal
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Masvidal Gastelum
Significant Strikes80
Masvidal's good striking offense may be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Masvidal's good takedown offense may be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Masvidal is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Masvidal is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Masvidal has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Masvidal’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Masvidal
Significant Strikes61
Gastelum's average striking offense is matched by Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Gastelum's good takedown offense may be a factor against Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Masvidal 8.8
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Masvidal
50 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Means
82 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Wilcox
56 strikes Mar 05, 2011 vs Evangelista

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Masvidal 8.7
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Gastelum
1 takedown Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
3 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Masvidal 7.5
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Gastelum
Round 1 Jul 20, 2012 vs Ashford
Round 2 Oct 22, 2011 vs Gentile
Round 3 Jul 16, 2011 vs Moguel

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Masvidal 6.9
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Gastelum
Round 1 Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Smallwood
Round 2 Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Masvidal 7.6
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Gastelum
146 seconds Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
746 seconds Jul 16, 2011 vs Moguel
398 seconds Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Masvidal
legend Gastelum
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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