Gilbert Melendez El Nino 24-7

Weight 155 lbs
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73"
Age 36

Shinya Aoki 39-8 Tobikan Judan

153 lbs
5' 11"
72"
34

CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melendez vs Aoki

CageRank

51% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

CageRank

WINNER

Differences What advantages does each fighter have?

Advantages for Shinya Aoki

Much better submission offense	9.9	vs	6.5	More than 50% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit	10.0	vs	9.0	More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes	9.4	vs	8.3	Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense	9.6	vs	8.9	Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense	9.7	vs	9.2	More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller	180 cm	vs	175 cm	Around 5% taller
Better submission defense	9.8	vs	9.4	Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger	34 years	vs	36 years	More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon

Advantages for Gilbert Melendez

Better striker	9.3	vs	7.4	More than 25% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands	8.3	vs	6.1	More than 35% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly heavier	155 lbs	vs	153 lbs	Almost the same
Stronger jaw	9.2	vs	8.9	Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach	185 cm	vs	183 cm	Almost the same
Puts up a fight	9.7	vs	9.4	Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds

Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills

Predictions For Shinya Aoki
In 11:03, how much damage will he do?	Aoki		Melendez
Significant Strikes18 Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03	Poor Striking	vs	Good Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3 Aoki's excellent takedown offense is matched by Melendez's defense Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03	Excellent Takedown ability	vs	Excellent Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout	Weak Knockout ability	vs	Excellent Jaw
Submission Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission	Excellent Submission ability	vs	Excellent Resistance
Decision Aoki is unlikely to win by decision	Average Scoring ability	vs	Excellent Scoring ability

Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills

Predictions For Gilbert Melendez
In 11:03, how much damage will he do?	Melendez		Aoki
Significant Strikes37 Melendez's excellent striking offense is matched by Aoki's defense Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03	Excellent Striking	vs	Excellent Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1 Melendez's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03	Good Takedown ability	vs	Excellent Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout	Excellent Knockout ability	vs	Excellent Jaw
Submission Melendez is unlikely to win by submission	Poor Submission ability	vs	Excellent Resistance
Decision Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by decision	Excellent Scoring ability	vs	Excellent Scoring ability