UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melendez vs Aoki

2,243

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
51% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 6.5 More than 50% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 9.0 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Better striker 9.3 vs 7.4 More than 25% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.3 vs 6.1 More than 35% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.4 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 11:03, how much damage will he do? Aoki Melendez
Significant Strikes18
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03
Poor
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense is matched by Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 11:03, how much damage will he do? Melendez Aoki
Significant Strikes37
Melendez's excellent striking offense is matched by Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Melendez's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Melendez 9.3
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Melendez 8.9
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Melendez 8.3
Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
Round 3 Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Oct 10, 2003 vs Palling

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Melendez 6.5
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Melendez 8.3
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
XR1 SUB
2,1012,175
2,1612,114
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Melendez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus