CAGERANK PREDICTION
Who will win - Melendez vs Aoki
Differences
What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense | 9.9 | vs | 6.5 | More than 50% better at securing submissions; more ways to win |
Much harder to hit | 10.0 | vs | 9.0 | More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage |
Fast finishes | 9.4 | vs | 8.3 | Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss |
Significantly stronger takedown offense | 9.6 | vs | 8.9 | Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat |
Significantly better takedown defense | 9.7 | vs | 9.2 | More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down |
Taller | 180 cm | vs | 175 cm | Around 5% taller |
Better submission defense | 9.8 | vs | 9.4 | Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap |
Younger | 34 years | vs | 36 years | More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon |
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Better striker | 9.3 | vs | 7.4 | More than 25% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders |
Much heavier hands | 8.3 | vs | 6.1 | More than 35% better at knocking out good defenders |
Significantly heavier | 155 lbs | vs | 153 lbs | Almost the same |
Stronger jaw | 9.2 | vs | 8.9 | Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions |
Longer reach | 185 cm | vs | 183 cm | Almost the same |
Puts up a fight | 9.7 | vs | 9.4 | Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds |
Aoki on the attack
Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For Shinya Aoki |
|||
---|---|---|---|
In 11:03, how much damage will he do? | Aoki | Melendez | |
Significant Strikes18
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03 |
Poor
Striking
|
vs |
Good
Blocking and avoiding
|
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense is matched by Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03 |
Excellent
Takedown ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
|
If he wins, how will it go down? | |||
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout |
Weak
Knockout ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Jaw
|
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission |
Excellent
Submission ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Resistance
|
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision |
Average
Scoring ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Scoring ability
|
Melendez on the attack
Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For Gilbert Melendez |
|||
---|---|---|---|
In 11:03, how much damage will he do? | Melendez | Aoki | |
Significant Strikes37
Melendez's excellent striking offense is matched by Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:03 |
Excellent
Striking
|
vs |
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
|
Takedowns1
Melendez's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:03 |
Good
Takedown ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
|
If he wins, how will it go down? | |||
Knockout
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout |
Excellent
Knockout ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Jaw
|
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission |
Poor
Submission ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Resistance
|
Decision
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by decision |
Excellent
Scoring ability
|
vs |
Excellent
Scoring ability
|
OFFENSE
Who’s better on the attack?
striking
Who can land devastating blows when it matters?Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes | Oct 19, 2013 | vs Sanchez |
33 strikes | Apr 09, 2011 | vs Kawajiri |
69 strikes | Apr 17, 2010 | vs Aoki |
takedowns
Who's going to take it to the ground?Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns | Dec 31, 2012 | vs McKee |
6 takedowns | Dec 31, 2011 | vs Kitaoka |
1 takedown | Apr 29, 2008 | vs Cavalcante |
knockouts
Who's better at knocking out opponents?Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 | Apr 09, 2011 | vs Kawajiri |
Round 3 | Aug 15, 2009 | vs Ishida |
Round 2 | Oct 10, 2003 | vs Palling |
submissions
Who can finish it on the ground?Great submissions by Aoki
Round 1 | Jul 10, 2010 | vs Kawajiri |
Round 1 | Dec 31, 2008 | vs Alvarez |
Round 1 | Aug 26, 2006 | vs Black |
Fast finishes
Who can end the fight faster? Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds | Dec 31, 2012 | vs McKee |
113 seconds | Jul 10, 2010 | vs Kawajiri |
92 seconds | Dec 31, 2008 | vs Alvarez |
Fight History
Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
Cage Rank Over Time
See how Cage Rank changes with each fight


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Comments
Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?