UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melendez vs Diaz

2,243

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Melendez

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
75% chance Melendez
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 6.5 Around 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 32 years vs 35 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Diaz
Significant Strikes91
Melendez's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Melendez's good takedown offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Melendez
Significant Strikes81
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Melendez 9.3
fighter Diaz 9.3
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Melendez 8.9
fighter Diaz 7.8
Great takedowns by Melendez
1 takedown Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
5 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Thomson
2 takedowns Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Diaz 7.4
Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
Round 3 Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Oct 10, 2003 vs Palling

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Melendez 6.5
fighter Diaz 8.6
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Melendez
legend Diaz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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