UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melendez vs Thomson

2,243

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Melendez

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
78% chance Melendez
WILL WIN

2,018

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Longer reach 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 34 years vs 38 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly fast finishes 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Advantages for Josh Thomson
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.5 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly harder to hit 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Thomson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Thomson
Significant Strikes69
Melendez's excellent striking offense is matched by Thomson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Melendez's good takedown offense may be a factor against Thomson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Thomson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Josh
Thomson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Thomson Melendez
Significant Strikes53
Thomson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Thomson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Thomson is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Thomson is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Thomson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Melendez 9.3
fighter Thomson 8.4
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Melendez 8.9
fighter Thomson 8.6
Great takedowns by Melendez
1 takedown Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
5 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Thomson
2 takedowns Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Thomson 7.9
Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
Round 3 Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Oct 10, 2003 vs Palling

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Melendez 6.5
fighter Thomson 7.9
Great submissions by Thomson
Round 3 Jun 26, 2010 vs Healy
Round 1 Jun 22, 2007 vs Gonzalez
Round 2 Oct 07, 2006 vs Ludwig

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Thomson 8.1
Fast finishes by Melendez
194 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
836 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
92 seconds Aug 20, 2005 vs Sato
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
DECX
2,2332,069
2,2612,041
December 19, 2009Strikeforce - Evolution
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
R1 KOX
2,0512,047
2,1011,998
team
VS
team
XR5 DEC
DECX
2,0411,978
1,9822,037
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Melendez
legend Thomson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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