UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melendez vs Kawajiri

2,243

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Melendez

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
68% chance Melendez
WILL WIN

2,112

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.0 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 35 years vs 39 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Tatsuya Kawajiri
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 6.5 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly harder to hit 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Better takedown defense 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kawajiri’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Kawajiri
Significant Strikes67
Melendez's excellent striking offense is matched by Kawajiri's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Melendez's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Kawajiri's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Kawajiri on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tatsuya
Kawajiri
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Kawajiri Melendez
Significant Strikes40
Kawajiri's average striking offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Kawajiri's excellent takedown offense is matched by Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kawajiri is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kawajiri has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kawajiri is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Melendez 9.3
fighter Kawajiri 8.0
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Melendez 8.9
fighter Kawajiri 9.2
Great takedowns by Kawajiri
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2010 vs Thomson
5 takedowns Dec 31, 2009 vs Yokota
4 takedowns May 26, 2009 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Kawajiri 7.5
Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
Round 3 Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Oct 10, 2003 vs Palling

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Melendez 6.5
fighter Kawajiri 8.4
Great submissions by Kawajiri
Round 1 Mar 31, 2012 vs Sanchez
Round 2 Dec 31, 2011 vs Miyata
Round 3 Sep 24, 2011 vs Hansen

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Kawajiri 8.5
Fast finishes by Kawajiri
750 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Hansen
8 seconds Feb 17, 2006 vs Hansen
491 seconds Dec 14, 2004 vs Ribeiro
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
DECX
2,1612,119
2,2052,075
December 31, 2006Pride FC - Shockwave 2006
team
VS
team
R2 DECX
XR2 KO
2,0282,037
2,0791,986
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Melendez
legend Kawajiri
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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