UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melendez vs Obiya

2,243

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Melendez

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
96% chance Melendez
WILL WIN

1,710

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 7.7 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.8 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Nobuhiro Obiya
From what we can tell, Gilbert Melendez dominates Nobuhiro Obiya in every way.
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Obiya’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Obiya
Significant Strikes99
Melendez's excellent striking offense will dominate Obiya's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Melendez's good takedown offense may be a factor against Obiya's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Obiya on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nobuhiro
Obiya
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Obiya Melendez
Significant Strikes45
Obiya's average striking offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Obiya's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Obiya is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Obiya is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Obiya is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Melendez 9.3
fighter Obiya 8.2
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Melendez 8.9
fighter Obiya 8.4
Great takedowns by Melendez
1 takedown Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
5 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Thomson
2 takedowns Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Obiya 7.6
Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
Round 3 Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Oct 10, 2003 vs Palling

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Melendez 6.5
fighter Obiya 6.4
Great submissions by Melendez
Round 2 Mar 10, 2006 vs Sarmiento

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Obiya 7.5
Fast finishes by Melendez
194 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
836 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
92 seconds Aug 20, 2005 vs Sato
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 26, 2006Pride - Bushido 12
team
VS
team
R2 DECX
R1 KOX
2,0011,828
2,0281,801
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Melendez
legend Obiya
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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