UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melendez vs Aldo

2,243

CageRank

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
59% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Significantly heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Younger 30 years vs 35 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Much stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aldo Melendez
Significant Strikes67
Aldo's good striking offense is matched by Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aldo's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Aldo
Significant Strikes76
Melendez's excellent striking offense is matched by Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Melendez's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Melendez 9.3
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Melendez 8.9
Great takedowns by Melendez
1 takedown Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
5 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Thomson
2 takedowns Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Melendez 8.3
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Melendez 6.5
Great submissions by Aldo
Round 1 Jul 09, 2005 vs Silverio
Round 1 Mar 19, 2005 vs de Paula

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Melendez 8.3
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Melendez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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