UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melendez vs Kato

2,243

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Melendez

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
97% chance Melendez
WILL WIN

1,661

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.3 vs 6.9 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.3 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 35 years vs 40 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Advantages for Tetsuji Kato
Better submission offense 6.8 vs 6.5 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kato’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Kato
Significant Strikes90
Melendez's excellent striking offense will dominate Kato's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Melendez's good takedown offense may be a factor against Kato's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Kato on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tetsuji
Kato
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Kato Melendez
Significant Strikes47
Kato's average striking offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Kato's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kato is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kato is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kato is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Melendez 9.3
fighter Kato 8.2
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Melendez 8.9
fighter Kato 8.6
Great takedowns by Melendez
1 takedown Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
5 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Thomson
2 takedowns Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Kato 6.9
Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
Round 3 Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Oct 10, 2003 vs Palling

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Melendez 6.5
fighter Kato 6.9
Great submissions by Kato
Round 1 Dec 17, 2000 vs Gilbert
Round 1 Dec 11, 1999 vs Sergio
Round 1 Apr 25, 1998 vs Madayag

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Kato 7.3
Fast finishes by Melendez
194 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
836 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
92 seconds Aug 20, 2005 vs Sato
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
DECX
2,0791,710
2,0901,699
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Melendez
legend Kato
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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