UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Melendez vs Alfonso

2,243

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Melendez

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
98% chance Melendez
WILL WIN

1,524

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.0 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.2 vs 7.1 Around 30% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much heavier 155 lbs vs 150 lbs Around 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.0 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much longer reach 185 cm vs 170 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.2 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.3 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 35 years vs 42 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Olaf Alfonso
From what we can tell, Gilbert Melendez dominates Olaf Alfonso in every way.
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alfonso’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Alfonso
Significant Strikes104
Melendez's excellent striking offense will dominate Alfonso's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Melendez's good takedown offense may be a factor against Alfonso's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Alfonso on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Olaf
Alfonso
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alfonso Melendez
Significant Strikes40
Alfonso's average striking offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Alfonso's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alfonso is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alfonso is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alfonso is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Melendez 9.3
fighter Alfonso 8.0
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Melendez 8.9
fighter Alfonso 7.9
Great takedowns by Melendez
1 takedown Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
5 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Thomson
2 takedowns Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Alfonso 7.2
Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
Round 3 Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Oct 10, 2003 vs Palling

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Melendez 6.5
fighter Alfonso 6.6
Great submissions by Alfonso
Round 1 Jan 22, 2009 vs Metcalf
Round 1 Oct 17, 2003 vs Bowers

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Alfonso 7.5
Fast finishes by Melendez
194 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
836 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
92 seconds Aug 20, 2005 vs Sato
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 21, 2004WEC 10
team
VS
team
R3 KOX
R2 KOX
1,7341,633
1,7701,597
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Melendez
legend Alfonso
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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