UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sakuraba vs Aoki

1,676

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
97% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.6 Around 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.1 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.4 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 7.8 Around 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly younger 33 years vs 47 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.9 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Kazushi Sakuraba
Heavier 166 lbs vs 153 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sakuraba’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 5:52, how much damage will he do? Aoki Sakuraba
Significant Strikes14
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 53 Significant Strikes in 5:52
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:52
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Sakuraba on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kazushi
Sakuraba
In 5:52, how much damage will he do? Sakuraba Aoki
Significant Strikes4
Sakuraba's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 53 Significant Strikes in 5:52
Poor
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Sakuraba's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:52
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sakuraba has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Sakuraba 7.4
Great striking by Sakuraba
38 strikes Aug 05, 2006 vs Smirnovas
8 strikes Nov 09, 2003 vs Randleman
20 strikes Aug 27, 2000 vs Gracie

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Sakuraba 7.8
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Sakuraba 6.2
Great knockouts by Sakuraba
Round 1 Oct 23, 2005 vs Shamrock
Round 6 May 01, 2000 vs Gracie
Round 1 Jan 30, 2000 vs Mezger

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Sakuraba 8.1
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Sakuraba 7.6
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Sakuraba
Read More
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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