UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sakuraba vs Gracie

1,676

CageRank

WINNER
Gracie

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
66% chance Gracie
WILL WIN

1,790

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Renzo Gracie
Better striker 8.2 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly heavier 170 lbs vs 166 lbs Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 7.8 vs 7.6 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Advantages for Kazushi Sakuraba
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 8.2 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 48 years vs 50 years Around 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Gracie on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sakuraba’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renzo
Gracie
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Gracie Sakuraba
Significant Strikes64
Gracie's average striking offense is matched by Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Gracie's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gracie is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Gracie is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gracie is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Sakuraba on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gracie’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kazushi
Sakuraba
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sakuraba Gracie
Significant Strikes27
Sakuraba's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Gracie's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Sakuraba's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gracie's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Sakuraba has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Gracie 8.2
fighter Sakuraba 7.4
Great striking by Gracie
11 strikes Feb 10, 2007 vs Shamrock
68 strikes Nov 03, 2001 vs Ohara
12 strikes Nov 21, 1999 vs Otsuka

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Gracie 8.3
fighter Sakuraba 7.8
Great takedowns by Gracie
3 takedowns Feb 10, 2007 vs Shamrock
1 takedown Nov 03, 2001 vs Ohara
1 takedown Nov 21, 1999 vs Otsuka

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Gracie 6.2
fighter Sakuraba 6.2
Great knockouts by Gracie
Round 1 Nov 22, 1996 vs Taktarov

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gracie 7.7
fighter Sakuraba 8.1
Great submissions by Sakuraba
Round 1 Aug 05, 2006 vs Smirnovas
Round 1 Dec 31, 2005 vs Minowa
Round 3 Nov 09, 2003 vs Randleman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gracie 7.8
fighter Sakuraba 7.6
Fast finishes by Gracie
420 seconds Feb 10, 2007 vs Shamrock
217 seconds Sep 23, 2006 vs Miletich
62 seconds Nov 22, 1996 vs Taktarov
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 27, 2000Pride 10
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
R1 SUBX
1,8881,794
1,9251,757
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gracie
legend Sakuraba
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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