UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sakuraba vs Smirnovas

1,676

CageRank

WINNER
Smirnovas

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
71% chance Smirnovas
WILL WIN

1,833

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Kestutis Smirnovas
Better striker 8.6 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 7.8 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 8.4 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Heavier 197 lbs vs 166 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 41 years vs 47 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier hands 6.3 vs 6.2 Almost the same
Slightly stronger jaw 8.3 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Advantages for Kazushi Sakuraba
Significantly better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 8.4 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Slightly better submission defense 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Smirnovas on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sakuraba’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kestutis
Smirnovas
In 8:54, how much damage will he do? Smirnovas Sakuraba
Significant Strikes45
Smirnovas's average striking offense is matched by Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 80 Significant Strikes in 8:54
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Smirnovas's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:54
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smirnovas is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Smirnovas has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Smirnovas is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Sakuraba on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smirnovas’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kazushi
Sakuraba
In 8:54, how much damage will he do? Sakuraba Smirnovas
Significant Strikes26
Sakuraba's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Smirnovas's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 80 Significant Strikes in 8:54
Poor
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Sakuraba's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Smirnovas's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:54
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Sakuraba has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Smirnovas 6.3
fighter Sakuraba 6.2
Great knockouts by Smirnovas
Round 1 Nov 11, 2006 vs Valentin
Round 1 Nov 26, 2005 vs Miura
Round 1 Sep 05, 2003 vs Inoue

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Smirnovas 8.5
fighter Sakuraba 8.1
Great submissions by Smirnovas
Round 0 Apr 07, 2005 vs Smailis
Round 1 May 18, 2004 vs Markevicius
Round 1 Apr 04, 2004 vs Smailis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Smirnovas 8.7
fighter Sakuraba 7.6
Fast finishes by Smirnovas
100 seconds Sep 29, 2007 vs Yushko
50 seconds May 18, 2004 vs Markevicius
95 seconds Apr 04, 2004 vs Smailis
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 5, 2006K-1 - Hero's 6
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XR2 KO
1,8551,864
1,9061,812
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Smirnovas
legend Sakuraba
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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