UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sakuraba vs Gracie

1,676

CageRank

WINNER
Gracie

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
57% chance Gracie
WILL WIN

1,723

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ralek Gracie
Much heavier hands 7.2 vs 6.2 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 8.2 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much younger 32 years vs 48 years Around 35% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fast finishes 7.9 vs 7.6 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier 189 lbs vs 166 lbs Around 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Advantages for Kazushi Sakuraba
Much better submission defense 8.9 vs 7.7 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 8.2 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Gracie on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sakuraba’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ralek
Gracie
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Gracie Sakuraba
Significant Strikes62
Gracie's average striking offense is matched by Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Gracie's good takedown offense is matched by Sakuraba's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gracie is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Gracie has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gracie has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Sakuraba on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gracie’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kazushi
Sakuraba
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sakuraba Gracie
Significant Strikes32
Sakuraba's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Gracie's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sakuraba's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gracie's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Sakuraba has a very good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Sakuraba is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Gracie 8.2
fighter Sakuraba 7.4
Great striking by Gracie
26 strikes May 29, 2010 vs Sakuraba
3 strikes Jun 15, 2008 vs Gadjiev

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Gracie 8.9
fighter Sakuraba 7.8
Great takedowns by Gracie
2 takedowns May 29, 2010 vs Sakuraba
1 takedown Jun 15, 2008 vs Gadjiev

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gracie 8.1
fighter Sakuraba 8.1
Great submissions by Gracie
Round 1 Jun 15, 2008 vs Gadjiev
Round 1 Jul 16, 2007 vs Shibata

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gracie 7.9
fighter Sakuraba 7.6
Fast finishes by Gracie
182 seconds Jun 15, 2008 vs Gadjiev
185 seconds Jul 16, 2007 vs Shibata
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 29, 2010Dream 14
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R2 SUBX
1,8541,647
1,7771,724
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gracie
legend Sakuraba
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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