UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mousasi vs MacDonald

2,154

CageRank

WINNER
MacDonald

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
56% chance MacDonald
WILL WIN

2,198

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Rory MacDonald
Heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 28 years vs 32 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Slightly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Gegard Mousasi
Much harder to hit 9.9 vs 9.0 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.6 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 186 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
MacDonald on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mousasi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rory
MacDonald
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? MacDonald Mousasi
Significant Strikes43
MacDonald's excellent striking offense is matched by Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
MacDonald's good takedown offense may be a factor against Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
MacDonald has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
MacDonald is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
MacDonald has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Mousasi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against MacDonald’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gegard
Mousasi
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Mousasi MacDonald
Significant Strikes71
Mousasi's excellent striking offense will dominate MacDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Mousasi's average takedown offense won't be a factor against MacDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mousasi is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mousasi has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mousasi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter MacDonald 9.1
fighter Mousasi 9.0
Great striking by MacDonald
46 strikes Jul 27, 2013 vs Ellenberger
116 strikes Dec 08, 2012 vs Penn
24 strikes Aug 06, 2011 vs Pyle

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter MacDonald 8.8
fighter Mousasi 8.6
Great takedowns by MacDonald
1 takedown Dec 08, 2012 vs Penn
7 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Diaz
2 takedowns Jan 11, 2010 vs Guymon

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter MacDonald 8.2
fighter Mousasi 7.8
Great knockouts by MacDonald
Round 2 Apr 21, 2012 vs Mills
Round 1 Aug 06, 2011 vs Pyle
Round 2 Nov 28, 2008 vs French

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter MacDonald 7.5
fighter Mousasi 8.4
Great submissions by Mousasi
Round 1 Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
Round 1 Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter MacDonald 8.4
fighter Mousasi 8.8
Fast finishes by Mousasi
60 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
88 seconds Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
190 seconds Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend MacDonald
legend Mousasi
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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