UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mousasi vs Lombard

2,154

CageRank

WINNER
Lombard

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
61% chance Lombard
WILL WIN

2,230

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Hector Lombard
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.7 vs 9.3 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Gegard Mousasi
Much harder to hit 9.9 vs 8.6 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much longer reach 196 cm vs 180 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly better submission offense 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 32 years vs 39 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 186 lbs vs 184 lbs Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.6 Almost the same
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Lombard on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mousasi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Hector
Lombard
In 11:51, how much damage will he do? Lombard Mousasi
Significant Strikes30
Lombard's good striking offense won't be a factor against Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:51
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lombard's average takedown offense is matched by Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:51
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lombard has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lombard is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lombard is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Mousasi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lombard’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gegard
Mousasi
In 11:51, how much damage will he do? Mousasi Lombard
Significant Strikes67
Mousasi's excellent striking offense will dominate Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:51
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mousasi's average takedown offense is matched by Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:51
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mousasi is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mousasi has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mousasi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lombard 8.9
fighter Mousasi 9.0
Great striking by Mousasi
23 strikes Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
12 strikes Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
6 strikes Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lombard 8.3
fighter Mousasi 8.6
Great takedowns by Mousasi
4 takedowns Dec 17, 2011 vs St. Preux
1 takedown Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
1 takedown Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lombard 9.3
fighter Mousasi 7.8
Great knockouts by Lombard
Round 1 Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares
Round 3 May 14, 2011 vs Vitale

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lombard 7.4
fighter Mousasi 8.4
Great submissions by Mousasi
Round 1 Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
Round 1 Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lombard 9.4
fighter Mousasi 8.8
Fast finishes by Lombard
108 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
218 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares
386 seconds Sep 03, 2011 vs Taylor
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 5, 2006Pride - Bushido 13
team
VS
team
R2 DECX
R2 KOX
1,8411,749
1,8781,712
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lombard
legend Mousasi
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus