UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mousasi vs Souza

2,154

CageRank

WINNER
Souza

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
63% chance Souza
WILL WIN

2,245

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ronaldo Souza
Significantly better takedown defense 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Advantages for Gegard Mousasi
Significantly longer reach 196 cm vs 187 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly harder to hit 9.9 vs 9.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 186 lbs vs 183 lbs Almost the same
Younger 31 years vs 37 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 7.8 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Souza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mousasi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ronaldo
Souza
In 12:02, how much damage will he do? Souza Mousasi
Significant Strikes27
Souza's good striking offense won't be a factor against Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:02
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Souza's excellent takedown offense will dominate Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:02
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Souza is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Souza has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Souza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Mousasi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Souza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gegard
Mousasi
In 12:02, how much damage will he do? Mousasi Souza
Significant Strikes43
Mousasi's excellent striking offense is matched by Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:02
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Mousasi's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mousasi is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mousasi has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mousasi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Souza 8.7
fighter Mousasi 9.0
Great striking by Mousasi
23 strikes Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
12 strikes Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
6 strikes Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Souza 9.2
fighter Mousasi 8.6
Great takedowns by Souza
2 takedowns Jan 12, 2013 vs Herman
4 takedowns Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
3 takedowns Jun 15, 2008 vs Miller

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Souza 7.3
fighter Mousasi 7.8
Great knockouts by Mousasi
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Thierry Sokoudjou
Round 1 Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Souza

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Souza 9.0
fighter Mousasi 8.4
Great submissions by Souza
Round 1 May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
Round 3 Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Round 1 Dec 19, 2009 vs Lindland

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Souza 9.4
fighter Mousasi 8.8
Fast finishes by Souza
167 seconds Sep 04, 2013 vs Okami
217 seconds May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
720 seconds Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 5, 2014UFC Fight Night 50
team
VS
team
XR3 SUB
XX
00
00
September 23, 2008Dream 6
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R2 KOX
2,0471,931
2,0801,897
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Souza
legend Mousasi
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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