UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mousasi vs Machida

2,154

CageRank

WINNER
Machida

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
51% chance Machida
WILL WIN

2,164

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Lyoto Machida
Much better takedown defense 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier hands 8.6 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Gegard Mousasi
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 6.8 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.0 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly longer reach 196 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 32 years vs 40 years 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 186 lbs vs 184 lbs Almost the same
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.6 Almost the same
Machida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mousasi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lyoto
Machida
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Machida Mousasi
Significant Strikes34
Machida's good striking offense won't be a factor against Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Machida's average takedown offense is matched by Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Machida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Mousasi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Machida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gegard
Mousasi
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Mousasi Machida
Significant Strikes39
Mousasi's excellent striking offense is matched by Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Mousasi's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mousasi is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mousasi has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mousasi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Machida 8.7
fighter Mousasi 9.0
Great striking by Mousasi
23 strikes Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
12 strikes Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
6 strikes Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Machida 8.0
fighter Mousasi 8.6
Great takedowns by Mousasi
4 takedowns Dec 17, 2011 vs St. Preux
1 takedown Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
1 takedown Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Machida 8.6
fighter Mousasi 7.8
Great knockouts by Machida
Round 1 Oct 26, 2013 vs Munoz
Round 2 May 23, 2009 vs Evans
Round 1 Jan 31, 2009 vs Silva

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Machida 6.8
fighter Mousasi 8.4
Great submissions by Mousasi
Round 1 Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
Round 1 Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Machida 8.2
fighter Mousasi 8.8
Fast finishes by Mousasi
60 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
88 seconds Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
190 seconds Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 15, 2014UFC Fight Night 36
team
VS
team
XR5 DEC
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Machida
legend Mousasi
Read More
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Fantasy Cage Match
Machida vs Cormier
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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