UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mousasi vs Sobral

2,154

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mousasi

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
78% chance Mousasi
WILL WIN

1,934

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gegard Mousasi
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 7.8 More than 25% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much heavier hands 7.8 vs 6.4 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Much harder to hit 9.9 vs 8.8 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.6 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly younger 31 years vs 41 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.2 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Slightly taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Slightly better submission offense 8.4 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Renato Sobral
Heavier 205 lbs vs 186 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.3 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Mousasi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sobral’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gegard
Mousasi
In 8:59, how much damage will he do? Mousasi Sobral
Significant Strikes47
Mousasi's excellent striking offense will dominate Sobral's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 8:59
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mousasi's average takedown offense is matched by Sobral's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:59
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mousasi has a chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Mousasi has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mousasi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Sobral on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mousasi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renato
Sobral
In 8:59, how much damage will he do? Sobral Mousasi
Significant Strikes15
Sobral's average striking offense won't be a factor against Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 8:59
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Sobral's average takedown offense is matched by Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:59
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sobral is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sobral has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sobral is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mousasi 9.0
fighter Sobral 8.4
Great striking by Mousasi
23 strikes Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
12 strikes Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
6 strikes Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mousasi 8.6
fighter Sobral 8.2
Great takedowns by Mousasi
4 takedowns Dec 17, 2011 vs St. Preux
1 takedown Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
1 takedown Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mousasi 7.8
fighter Sobral 6.4
Great knockouts by Mousasi
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Thierry Sokoudjou
Round 1 Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Souza

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mousasi 8.4
fighter Sobral 8.3
Great submissions by Mousasi
Round 1 Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
Round 1 Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mousasi 8.8
fighter Sobral 8.3
Fast finishes by Mousasi
60 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
88 seconds Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
190 seconds Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R2 KOX
2,1232,109
2,1712,061
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mousasi
legend Sobral
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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