UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mousasi vs Santos

2,154

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mousasi

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
94% chance Mousasi
WILL WIN

1,679

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gegard Mousasi
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 6.5 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.9 vs 8.4 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 7.9 More than 25% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.3 Around 20% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.1 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better submission defense 9.3 vs 7.9 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Slightly younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Thiago Santos
From what we can tell, Gegard Mousasi dominates Thiago Santos in every way.
Mousasi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Santos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gegard
Mousasi
In 5:44, how much damage will he do? Mousasi Santos
Significant Strikes34
Mousasi's excellent striking offense will dominate Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 52 Significant Strikes in 5:44
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Mousasi's average takedown offense is matched by Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:44
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mousasi has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Mousasi has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Mousasi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Santos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mousasi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Santos
In 5:44, how much damage will he do? Santos Mousasi
Significant Strikes8
Santos's average striking offense won't be a factor against Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 52 Significant Strikes in 5:44
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Santos's average takedown offense is matched by Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:44
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Santos is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Santos is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Santos is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mousasi 9.0
fighter Santos 8.1
Great striking by Mousasi
23 strikes Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
12 strikes Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
6 strikes Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mousasi 8.6
fighter Santos 8.3
Great takedowns by Mousasi
4 takedowns Dec 17, 2011 vs St. Preux
1 takedown Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
1 takedown Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mousasi 7.8
fighter Santos 7.8
Great knockouts by Santos
Round 1 Jul 27, 2012 vs Figueira da Silva
Round 1 Aug 13, 2011 vs Braga
Round 2 Apr 16, 2011 vs Barreiro

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mousasi 8.4
fighter Santos 6.5
Great submissions by Mousasi
Round 1 Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
Round 1 Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mousasi 8.8
fighter Santos 7.8
Fast finishes by Mousasi
60 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
88 seconds Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
190 seconds Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 9, 2016UFC 200
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mousasi
legend Santos
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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