UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mousasi vs Gastelum

2,154

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mousasi

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
76% chance Mousasi
WILL WIN

1,949

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gegard Mousasi
Much harder to hit 9.9 vs 8.5 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.5 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.2 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly longer reach 196 cm vs 182 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 186 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Heavier hands 7.8 vs 7.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Younger 25 years vs 31 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.6 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Mousasi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gegard
Mousasi
In 8:19, how much damage will he do? Mousasi Gastelum
Significant Strikes49
Mousasi's excellent striking offense will dominate Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:19
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mousasi's average takedown offense is matched by Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:19
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mousasi is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mousasi has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Mousasi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mousasi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 8:19, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Mousasi
Significant Strikes15
Gastelum's average striking offense won't be a factor against Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:19
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Gastelum's good takedown offense may be a factor against Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:19
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mousasi 9.0
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Mousasi
23 strikes Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
12 strikes Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
6 strikes Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mousasi 8.6
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Gastelum
1 takedown Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
3 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mousasi 7.8
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Mousasi
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Thierry Sokoudjou
Round 1 Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Souza

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mousasi 8.4
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Mousasi
Round 1 Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
Round 1 Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mousasi 8.8
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Mousasi
60 seconds Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
88 seconds Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
190 seconds Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mousasi
legend Gastelum
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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