UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Diaz vs Daley

2,151

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
68% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,017

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.3 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Longer reach 193 cm vs 189 cm Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.6 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Paul Daley
Significantly heavier hands 9.5 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier 170 lbs vs 169 lbs Almost the same
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Daley’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Daley
Significant Strikes102
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Daley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Daley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Daley on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Paul
Daley
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Daley Diaz
Significant Strikes84
Daley's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Daley's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Daley has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Daley is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Daley has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Daley 8.7
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Daley 7.6
Great takedowns by Daley
1 takedown Jun 22, 2007 vs Ludwig

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Daley 9.5
Great knockouts by Daley
Round 1 Jan 02, 2010 vs Hazelett
Round 1 Sep 19, 2009 vs Kampmann
Round 2 Dec 05, 2008 vs Alessio

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Daley 6.3
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Daley 8.8
Fast finishes by Daley
144 seconds Jan 02, 2010 vs Hazelett
151 seconds Sep 19, 2009 vs Kampmann
438 seconds Dec 05, 2008 vs Alessio
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R1 SUBX
2,1442,136
2,1932,087
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Daley
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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