UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Diaz vs Smith

2,151

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
90% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

1,764

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.0 More than 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.2 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better submission defense 9.5 vs 7.9 Around 20% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.4 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much harder to hit 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger takedown offense 7.6 vs 7.2 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Younger 34 years vs 38 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Scott Smith
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smith’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 8:36, how much damage will he do? Diaz Smith
Significant Strikes70
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:36
Excellent
Striking
vs
Poor
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:36
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Smith on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Scott
Smith
In 8:36, how much damage will he do? Smith Diaz
Significant Strikes33
Smith's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:36
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Smith's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:36
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smith has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Smith is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Smith is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Smith 8.0
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Smith 7.2
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
1 takedown Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
3 takedowns Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Smith 8.5
Great knockouts by Smith
Round 3 Apr 11, 2009 vs Radach
Round 1 Nov 21, 2008 vs Martin
Round 2 Feb 16, 2008 vs Noke

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Smith 6.2
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Smith 8.0
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R3 SUBX
R1 KOX
1,9991,932
2,0401,891
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Smith
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus