UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Diaz vs Sherk

2,151

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
63% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,059

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 6.7 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.6 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 170 cm Around 15% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much taller 185 cm vs 168 cm More than 10% taller
Significantly younger 33 years vs 43 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.6 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Sean Sherk
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.6 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sherk’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 12:45, how much damage will he do? Diaz Sherk
Significant Strikes91
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Sherk's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 115 Significant Strikes in 12:45
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sherk's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:45
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Sherk on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Sean
Sherk
In 12:45, how much damage will he do? Sherk Diaz
Significant Strikes67
Sherk's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 115 Significant Strikes in 12:45
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Sherk's excellent takedown offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:45
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sherk is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sherk is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sherk has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Sherk 8.6
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Sherk 9.2
Great takedowns by Sherk
5 takedowns Sep 25, 2010 vs Dunham
3 takedowns Oct 25, 2008 vs Griffin
16 takedowns Jul 07, 2007 vs Franca

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Sherk 6.7
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Sherk 7.9
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Sherk 7.9
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 15, 2006UFC 59
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XR1 SUB
1,8122,016
1,7882,039
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Sherk
Read More
Diaz vs Diaz
Fantasy Cage Match
Sherk vs Aldo
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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