UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Diaz vs Lawler

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Lawler

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance Lawler
WILL WIN

2,180

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Robbie Lawler
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly heavier hands 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.3 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger takedown offense 7.6 vs 7.4 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 33 years vs 35 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Lawler on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Robbie
Lawler
In 13:11, how much damage will he do? Lawler Diaz
Significant Strikes74
Lawler's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 119 Significant Strikes in 13:11
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lawler's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:11
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lawler has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lawler is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lawler has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lawler’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 13:11, how much damage will he do? Diaz Lawler
Significant Strikes84
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Lawler's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 119 Significant Strikes in 13:11
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lawler's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:11
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lawler 8.8
fighter Diaz 9.7
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lawler 7.4
fighter Diaz 7.6
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
1 takedown Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
3 takedowns Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lawler 9.3
fighter Diaz 8.4
Great knockouts by Lawler
Round 1 Feb 23, 2013 vs Koscheck
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Manhoef
Round 2 Jul 23, 2005 vs Vitale

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lawler 6.3
fighter Diaz 8.0
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lawler 8.8
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Lawler
237 seconds Feb 23, 2013 vs Koscheck
213 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Manhoef
22 seconds Oct 21, 2006 vs Villasenor
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 2, 2004UFC 47
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XR2 KO
1,7791,834
1,8371,776
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lawler
legend Diaz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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