UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Diaz vs Steinbeiss

2,151

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
94% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

1,687

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.1 Around 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 6.7 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better submission defense 9.5 vs 7.5 More than 25% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.2 More than 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 193 cm vs 187 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 33 years vs 37 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Ray Steinbeiss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.6 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Steinbeiss’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 7:39, how much damage will he do? Diaz Steinbeiss
Significant Strikes52
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Steinbeiss's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 69 Significant Strikes in 7:39
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense is matched by Steinbeiss's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:39
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a very good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Steinbeiss on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ray
Steinbeiss
In 7:39, how much damage will he do? Steinbeiss Diaz
Significant Strikes33
Steinbeiss's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 69 Significant Strikes in 7:39
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Steinbeiss's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:39
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Steinbeiss is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Steinbeiss is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Steinbeiss is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Steinbeiss 8.2
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Steinbeiss 6.7
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Steinbeiss 7.7
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Steinbeiss 7.8
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 13, 2006ICFO 1
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R2 KOX
1,7881,770
1,8351,722
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Steinbeiss
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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