UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Matsui vs Chonan

1,442

CageRank

WINNER
Chonan

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
92% chance Chonan
WILL WIN

1,876

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ryo Chonan
Much heavier hands 7.5 vs 5.7 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.7 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 7.0 vs 6.3 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 6.2 vs 5.8 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 8.4 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 41 years vs 45 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Daijiro Matsui
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.2 vs 7.5 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Chonan on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Matsui’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ryo
Chonan
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Chonan Matsui
Significant Strikes67
Chonan's good striking offense may be a factor against Matsui's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Chonan's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Matsui's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Chonan is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Chonan is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Chonan has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Matsui on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Chonan’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Daijiro
Matsui
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Matsui Chonan
Significant Strikes31
Matsui's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Chonan's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Matsui's average takedown offense is matched by Chonan's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Matsui is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Matsui is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Matsui is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Chonan 8.7
fighter Matsui 7.3
Great striking by Chonan
23 strikes Sep 06, 2008 vs Carneiro
54 strikes Jun 04, 2006 vs Villasenor
43 strikes Dec 31, 2004 vs Silva

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Chonan 7.5
fighter Matsui 8.2
Great takedowns by Matsui
4 takedowns Dec 23, 2002 vs Okubo
3 takedowns May 27, 2001 vs Landi-Jons
4 takedowns Sep 12, 1999 vs Schrijber

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Chonan 7.5
fighter Matsui 5.7
Great knockouts by Chonan
Round 1 Jun 24, 2011 vs Iwase
Round 1 Feb 05, 2006 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Sep 15, 2003 vs Sakurai

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Chonan 6.2
fighter Matsui 5.8
Great submissions by Chonan
Round 3 Dec 31, 2004 vs Silva
Round 1 Mar 30, 2002 vs Akiyama

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Chonan 7.0
fighter Matsui 6.3
Fast finishes by Chonan
117 seconds Feb 05, 2006 vs Sakurai
788 seconds Dec 31, 2004 vs Silva
730 seconds Sep 15, 2003 vs Sakurai
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 22, 2004Deep - 13th Impact
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XDEC
1,5991,671
1,5591,711
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Chonan
legend Matsui
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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