UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Varner vs Lauzon

1,835

CageRank

WINNER
Lauzon

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
64% chance Lauzon
WILL WIN

1,936

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Joe Lauzon
Significantly better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Jamie Varner
Much harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 7.6 vs 6.9 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Lauzon on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Varner’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Joe
Lauzon
In 11:19, how much damage will he do? Lauzon Varner
Significant Strikes41
Lauzon's average striking offense won't be a factor against Varner's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:19
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lauzon's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Varner's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:19
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lauzon is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lauzon has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lauzon is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Varner on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lauzon’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jamie
Varner
In 11:19, how much damage will he do? Varner Lauzon
Significant Strikes72
Varner's good striking offense may be a factor against Lauzon's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:19
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Varner's good takedown offense is matched by Lauzon's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:19
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Varner is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Varner is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Varner is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lauzon 8.4
fighter Varner 8.9
Great striking by Varner
32 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs Guillard
20 strikes May 26, 2012 vs Barboza
27 strikes Aug 03, 2008 vs Hicks

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lauzon 8.3
fighter Varner 8.8
Great takedowns by Varner
7 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs Guillard
2 takedowns May 26, 2012 vs Barboza
3 takedowns Feb 13, 2008 vs McCullough

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lauzon 6.9
fighter Varner 7.7
Great knockouts by Varner
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Barboza
Round 1 Aug 03, 2008 vs Hicks
Round 3 Feb 13, 2008 vs McCullough

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lauzon 8.7
fighter Varner 7.6
Great submissions by Lauzon
Round 3 Aug 04, 2012 vs Varner
Round 1 Oct 08, 2011 vs Guillard
Round 2 Feb 07, 2009 vs Stephens

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lauzon 8.6
fighter Varner 8.3
Fast finishes by Lauzon
47 seconds Oct 08, 2011 vs Guillard
74 seconds Nov 17, 2007 vs Reinhardt
48 seconds Sep 23, 2006 vs Pulver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 4, 2012UFC on Fox 4
team
VS
team
XR3 SUB
R2 KOX
1,9651,960
1,9152,011
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lauzon
legend Varner
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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