UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Barao vs Jorgensen

2,194

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Barao

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
87% chance Barao
WILL WIN

1,858

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Renan Barao
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission offense 8.5 vs 7.5 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.3 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly longer reach 179 cm vs 168 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.0 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 170 cm vs 165 cm Around 5% taller
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Younger 31 years vs 35 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Advantages for Scott Jorgensen
From what we can tell, Renan Barao dominates Scott Jorgensen in every way.
Barao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jorgensen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renan
Barao
In 10:19, how much damage will he do? Barao Jorgensen
Significant Strikes58
Barao's good striking offense may be a factor against Jorgensen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:19
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Barao's average takedown offense is matched by Jorgensen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:19
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barao is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barao has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Barao has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Jorgensen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Scott
Jorgensen
In 10:19, how much damage will he do? Jorgensen Barao
Significant Strikes43
Jorgensen's good striking offense is matched by Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:19
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Jorgensen's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:19
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jorgensen is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jorgensen is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jorgensen is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Barao 8.9
fighter Jorgensen 8.7
Great striking by Barao
36 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
85 strikes Jul 21, 2012 vs Faber
104 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Jorgensen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Barao 8.0
fighter Jorgensen 8.1
Great takedowns by Jorgensen
5 takedowns Oct 29, 2011 vs Curran
4 takedowns Aug 18, 2010 vs Pickett
3 takedowns Dec 19, 2009 vs Mizugaki

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Barao 7.7
fighter Jorgensen 7.0
Great knockouts by Barao
Round 2 Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
Round 2 Aug 13, 2009 vs Sardinha
Round 3 Nov 29, 2008 vs Pinheiro

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Barao 8.5
fighter Jorgensen 7.5
Great submissions by Barao
Round 4 Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Round 1 Dec 16, 2010 vs Cariaso

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Barao 8.6
fighter Jorgensen 7.8
Fast finishes by Barao
335 seconds Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
1137 seconds Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
249 seconds Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 4, 2012UFC 143
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 SUBX
2,1181,992
2,1511,960
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Barao
legend Jorgensen
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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