UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Shalorus vs Aoki

1,888

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
89% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.5 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 6.7 Around 50% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.6 Around 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.1 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.1 More than 20% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
A lot taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly longer reach 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 33 years vs 39 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Kamal Shalorus
Better striker 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.6 vs 6.1 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Shalorus’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 6:39, how much damage will he do? Aoki Shalorus
Significant Strikes16
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Shalorus's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 60 Significant Strikes in 6:39
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Shalorus's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:39
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Shalorus on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kamal
Shalorus
In 6:39, how much damage will he do? Shalorus Aoki
Significant Strikes11
Shalorus's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 60 Significant Strikes in 6:39
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Shalorus's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:39
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Shalorus is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Shalorus is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Shalorus has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Shalorus 8.4
Great striking by Shalorus
64 strikes Dec 16, 2010 vs Palaszewski
46 strikes Jan 10, 2010 vs Jansen
15 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Kerr

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Shalorus 8.2
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Shalorus 7.6
Great knockouts by Shalorus
Round 1 Nov 18, 2009 vs Kerr
Round 2 Jun 20, 2009 vs Miller
Round 1 Apr 05, 2008 vs Davis

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Shalorus 6.7
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Shalorus 7.6
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Shalorus
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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