UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lentz vs Lowe

2,069

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Lentz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
70% chance Lentz
WILL WIN

1,920

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nik Lentz
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better submission defense 9.4 vs 7.9 Around 20% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly longer reach 175 cm vs 165 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly better submission offense 7.4 vs 6.6 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 33 years vs 37 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Taller 173 cm vs 170 cm Almost the same
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Advantages for Waylon Lowe
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.1 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Lentz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lowe’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nik
Lentz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lentz Lowe
Significant Strikes78
Lentz's good striking offense may be a factor against Lowe's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Lentz's excellent takedown offense will dominate Lowe's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lentz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lentz is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Lentz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Lowe on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lentz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Waylon
Lowe
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lowe Lentz
Significant Strikes51
Lowe's average striking offense is matched by Lentz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Lowe's good takedown offense may be a factor against Lentz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lowe has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lowe is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lowe is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lentz 8.8
fighter Lowe 8.1
Great striking by Lentz
42 strikes May 18, 2013 vs Dias
56 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Nunes
33 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Mitsuoka

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lentz 9.3
fighter Lowe 9.0
Great takedowns by Lentz
4 takedowns May 18, 2013 vs Dias
10 takedowns Jan 19, 2013 vs Nunes
4 takedowns Aug 11, 2012 vs Mitsuoka

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lentz 7.2
fighter Lowe 8.8
Great knockouts by Lowe
Round 1 Mar 23, 2013 vs Dollar
Round 2 May 12, 2012 vs Diggs
Round 1 Dec 02, 2011 vs Wadsworth

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lentz 7.4
fighter Lowe 6.6
Great submissions by Lentz
Round 3 Mar 26, 2011 vs Lowe
Round 2 May 02, 2008 vs Perzynski
Round 1 Aug 02, 2007 vs Walbridge

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lentz 7.5
fighter Lowe 8.3
Fast finishes by Lowe
178 seconds Mar 23, 2013 vs Dollar
493 seconds May 12, 2012 vs Diggs
171 seconds Dec 02, 2011 vs Wadsworth
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 26, 2011UFC Fight Night 24
team
VS
team
R3 SUBX
DECX
2,0271,867
2,0551,839
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lentz
legend Lowe
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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